Projecting the Blackhawks’ draft-day strategy

The Chicago Blackhawks have made the choice to trade away many of their high draft picks over the last two years. Such is the price they’ve been willing to pay to keep pushing for Stanley Cups while Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, and Corey Crawford are in their primes.

It paid off last year as the Blackhawks got another parade, but they were unable to get by the St. Louis Blues in the first round this season.

They didn’t select until No. 54 at the 2015 draft and (barring a trade) they’ll have to wait even longer at the 2016 version of event. The Blackhawks sent their first-round pick to the Winnipeg Jets as part of the Andrew Ladd deal, while their second-round selection belongs to the Philadelphia Flyers after they acquired Kimmo Timonen for the 2015 Cup run.

Some may not like how general manager Stan Bowman has handled Chicago’s prospect pipeline, but he’s proven to be one of the NHL’s best when it comes to plugging in holes on his active roster without trading pieces of it. That comes at a cost, but it’s a luxury the Blackhawks can afford because of their wealth of talent at the professional level.

20 March 2016: Chicago Blackhawks Left Wing Artemi Panarin (72) in action. (Photo by Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire)

It’s not like Bowman has totally depleted the system either. HockeysFuture.com ranked Chicago’s pipeline as the 13th best in the NHL ahead of this season, and Marko Dano is the only player listed who is no longer with the organization.

Let’s not overlook Chicago’s signing of Artemi Panarin either. It’s highly unlikely that the Blackhawks would have been able to find a player of similar skill with the No. 30 pick in the 2015 draft as the 24-year-old was lightning in a bottle this year.

When you find players like Panarin in free agency, it gives you the freedom to move draft picks at will.

A lack of high picks doesn’t mean that Chicago won’t be busy leading up to and at the draft though. What kinds of moves could we see Bowman make?

Do they like anyone enough to trade up for them?

Teams obviously don’t make their draft boards public (though they’d be a blast to read) so we need to speculate a bit about what kind of player Chicago could be in the hunt for. They had a need for a top-six center last summer but addressed that by acquiring Artem Anisimov in the Brandon Saad deal. They also needed a second-line wing, but found that in Panarin.

It’s highly unlikely that Bowman will uncover a player who can jump right to the NHL in 2016-17 unless he shocks the hockey world by trading into the top four or five picks. So whoever the Blackhawks circle on their board, it will be with an eye towards the future. This is an organization that hasn’t been afraid of going after smaller, skilled forwards in the past.

If we see someone like Vitali Abramov slip just because of his 5’9″ frame, we could see Bowman move one of his assets to jump up and snag him. He’s projected to go in the latter stages of the first round though, and moving that far up the draft board would come at a cost. It just so happens that the GM has a few tricks he could pull from his sleeve.

Will Andrew Shaw be a draft day trade?

25 April, 2016: Chicago Blackhawks’ rightwing Andrew Shaw (65) and St. Louis Blues left wing Alexander Steen (20) get tangled up while going for the puck. (Photo by Keith Gillett/Icon Sportswire)

This isn’t a fun question for Andrew Shaw and it’s not a fun question for the Blackhawks. That’s the reality of playing up to the salary cap in today’s NHL though, and Bowman has several tough choices to make as far as his cap situation is concerned.

The team has $69 million or so committed to players, retained salaries and overages for the 2016-17 season. With the cap likely sitting somewhere in the $74 million range, there may not be much room for Shaw on the roster.

Scott Powers recently reported that Pat Brisson (Shaw’s agent) and Bowman have entered preliminary talks about an extension. The 24-year-old has made it clear that he’d like to remain in Chicago, but he could draw considerable interest if he makes it to July as an RFA.

What can the Blackhawks do if Shaw is simply looking for more money than the team has? He’s worth considerably more than the $2 million cap hit he played with over the last two seasons, and keeping him could be tricky.

Perhaps Bowman can convince Shaw to take another short-term deal in hopes that the team has cap space clear within the next year or two, like he did with Marcus Kruger, but that could be a tough sell to a player who has clearly earned his keep.

If, and this is a big if, Chicago and Shaw can’t come to terms, he could be moved for futures before the draft. It’s entirely possible that Bowman could milk a second- or third-round pick out of a rival club for a player like Shaw. He’s been deep into the playoffs several times before and is the kind of “glue” guy NHL teams covet.

Trading him wouldn’t be ideal, and the Blackhawks might not have to make that move if they manage to shed a particularly brutal deal from their books.

Can Bowman finally find a taker for Bryan Bickell’s $4 million cap hit?

Chicago has a lot of moving parts ahead of the draft for a team that doesn’t own a first- or second-round pick. Things could really fall into place for them if anyone is interested in taking on Bryan Bickell and his inflated salary. The odds are still against this one, but we’ve seen stranger things happen around the league over the past few seasons.

It’d take a special sort of wizardry for Bowman to find a team willing to take on Bickell, but there are ways to make trades like this work. Even if the Blackhawks are only able to get rid of half of the money while retaining the other half, that few extra million would really open up options in Chicago.

If a trade like this is going to happen, one would assume it would go down during the summer or at the draft. It seems unlikely that Bowman would be able to snag any high-end picks while dumping salary, but it would still create some much-needed breathing room for the organization moving forward.

Especially since Shaw isn’t the only roster player who wants to remain in Chicago.

Holding onto Andrew Ladd may be impossible

Chicago Blackhawks Left Wing Andrew Ladd (16) celebrates with teammates after scoring a goal in the first period of action during game six of round one of the playoffs. (Photo by Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire)

Ladd came back to the Blackhawks in a bold all-in move that was supposed to push the team over the top and back into the Stanley Cup Final picture. That isn’t the way things shook out, and the veteran’s second stay in Chicago will likely be much shorter than his first.

The veteran went out of his way to talk about how, at this stage of his career, championship runs mean more than money.

That idea doesn’t give the Blackhawks more cap space to work with. If there’s an offseason priority, it has to be keeping Shaw. Getting that deal done likely means there won’t be enough cap space for Ladd, who made $4.4 million against the cap on his last deal. Chicago couldn’t swing that outright when they traded for him, and the Winnipeg Jets had to retain $1,584,000 million to get the deal to work.

Even if the 30-year-old wants Cup rings more than money, it’s highly unlikely he’ll be able to take another run with the ‘Hawks in 2016-17.

Who will Chicago take in the third round?

A lot of things could happen to push the Blackhawks back into the top two rounds, but let’s assume for this point that they won’t pick until the third round. Who could they target with that top-90 pick? Projecting the first 30 selections is tough enough, so we’ll round up a few names who could fall into Bowman’s wheelhouse.

— Ryan Lindgren (LHD) – 6’0″, 190-pound defenseman who knows how to move the puck in the offensive zone. Also noted for his steady two-way play and overall smarts. Could present Chicago with a lot of value.

— Adam Fox (RHD) – 5’10”, 183-pound defenseman who some believe is the most skilled attacking blueliner in the USNTDP right now. Already shows elite passing skills and patience while working the power play.

— Zach Sawchenko (G) – The Blackhawks could use another goalie in their system, and Sawchenko is pegged as a possible third-round pick. If he’s still on the board, he’d be a great value add for Bowman.

— Givani Smith (F) – Power forwards are tough to come by in the NHL these days, but Smith fits that mold. Is a physical force in the offensive zone and has likely seen his draft stock take a hit due to a lack of talent around him.

— Jordy Stallard (C/RW) – A bit of a late bloomer who really started to come into his own late in the 2015-16 season. Still developing, but has shown soft hands and an ability to get back defensively when needed.

The post Projecting the Blackhawks’ draft-day strategy appeared first on Todays SlapShot.