One of the most frequently neglected aspects of player evaluation is opportunity. Where a player actually lines up and who they skate with has a massive impact on their ability to produce.
For two-way studs, this isn’t much of a problem. No one is going to come down on Jonathan Toews for ‘only’ scoring 58 points in a season because of what he does in the neutral and defensive zones.
For a wing like Nail Yakupov, though, skating on a bad team’s third line won’t ever lead to success. That’s where the former first-overall draft pick spent a majority of the 2015-16 campaign, and it showed in his numbers. He only found the back of the net eight times and, at one point, went 16 consecutive contests without a goal.
That’s what happens when you give a goal-scoring wing like Yakupov a center like Mark Letestu — a fine checking forward in his own right, but he’s not the sort of passer that is needed here. Not when Edmonton is wanting Yakupov to score between 20 and 30 goals while only seeing 14:13 of ice time on average per night.
Now it sounds like Yakupov has fallen even farther down the depth chart. Earlier this week, Jim Matheson reported that the forward could start the season watching from the press box. And it’s tough to score goals from the press box while wearing a suit and tie. That’s where he’s at with the Oilers, however. Even if he ends up playing, he’s not going to have the opportunities he needs in Edmonton.
Which is what makes the recent Yakupov-to-Chicago trade scenario such an interesting one. Keep in mind that Bob McKenzie has said that nothing is imminent between the Blackhawks and Oilers, but this is a player Chicago has shown interest in before. They are going to (wisely) wait to see how their younger players perform in the coming days, but they could end up with a hole on the right side.
Patrick Kane will continue to be the team’s go-to wing for the foreseeable future, but there’s a bit of a talent drop off after him. While in his prime, Marian Hossa was one of the top two-way forwards in the game. At the age of 37, his best years are behind him — at least when it comes to scoring goals at the NHL level. Hossa will notch his 500th early this season, but he’s no longer the high-end scoring threat he once was. He knows his role is changing, and Chicago doesn’t have any no-brainer options when it comes to who to skate with Toews.
Ryan Hartman doesn’t seem to be the sort of impact forward the ‘Hawks would want in their top six. The spot seems to be Hossa’s by default going into opening night, but it’s easy to see where Yakupov would fit in with the roster. Hossa could skate on the third unit with someone like Marcus Kruger, giving Chicago an outstanding bottom six to work with. Meanwhile, the Oilers’ potential cast away could line up with one of the best two-way centers in the NHL in Toews.
The Oilers asked Yakupov to play a checking role last season, but that’s isn’t his meal ticket. It never was and never will be. He was selected so high because of his scoring prowess and creativity in the offensive zone — something that hasn’t been on display frequently in Edmonton over the last two seasons.
This has led to the trade market for Yakupov being characterized as weak. Just how weak? It sounds like the forward could be snatched up for as little as a single draft pick. Not a first- or second-round pick either. The Oilers want to trade this player and are willing to move him at a pretty deep discount.
Unlike a lot of the options available to the Blackhawks should they decide to upgrade at right wing, Yakupov’s cap hit isn’t unreasonable. He’ll hit the cap for $2.5 million this season and will be a restricted free agent next summer. If Darren Dreger is correct when saying that the Oilers aren’t looking for more than a third-round pick, this seems like a low risk/high reward sort of gamble for the ‘Hawks.
It may be risky, but not as risky as starting the season with an aging Hossa or Hartman competing for top-line minutes. By most accounts, Yakupov is a hard-working player and is well liked by teammates. Edmonton hasn’t exactly been the incubator needed to coax a goal-scorer out of the forward, but there’s a totally different environment in place in Chicago. More importantly, the 24-year-old would be given the opportunity to play with impact forwards who can get him the puck and cover up his weaknesses.
Maybe this particular trace scenario isn’t imminent, but it certainly is interesting. There’s a bit of smoke on this front and it’s a situation that should be worth keeping an eye on as October rolls into November. If Yakupov is still sitting in the press box and Chicago’s need for wing depth becomes apparent, we could very well see this unfold.
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