What the Blackhawks can expect from Marian Hossa in 2016-17

Few athletes in modern sports embody the word longevity better than Marian Hossa. At the age of 37, he’s among the oldest players in the National Hockey League, joining Mark Streit, Matt Cullen, Zdeno Chara and Jaromir Jagr as one of the game’s elder statesmen.

Given the way Hossa has inexplicably flown under the radar, it’d be easy to forget how long he’s been around. So here’s some perspective: On Oct. 1, 1997, the day he made his debut with the Ottawa Senators, Auston Matthews turned two weeks old.

Indeed, Hossa has enjoyed a lengthy and remarkably successful tenure in the NHL. His next regular season goal will be the 500th of his career; he has two Stanley Cup championship rings, is one of 83 players to record 1,000 regular season points and, in this writer’s opinion, deserves to be in the Professional Hockey Hall of Fame.

But Father Time spares no one — not even the man Chicagoans refer to as a “demigod.” Hossa’s skills are undoubtedly waning, and after last season, when he amassed a career-low 13 goals in 64 contests, the Slovak was left to ponder why he didn’t execute like he did in the past.

“I’m not sure why I was not as effective as before,” Hossa told the Chicago Sun-Times in September. “If I knew exactly, I’d be really working on that. But I don’t have an answer for that.”

He may not have a concrete answer, but Hossa understands it may be the simplest explanation of all.

“It could also be the age,” he added. “There are lots of guys who [have] great numbers, and when they hit a certain [age], the numbers slowly go down. Everybody’s game is going to decline at some point.”

Hossa’s right, but that doesn’t mean his downward trend will continue.

19 April 2016: St. Louis Blues Goalie Brian Elliott (1) blocks a shot from Chicago Blackhawks Right Wing Marian Hossa (81). (Photo by Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire)

For almost his entire career, Hossa’s shooting percentage rested in the low teens; in 2014-15, however, it plummeted to 8.9, and last season, it fell to 6.8. He dealt with injury troubles in 2015-16, and his shot doesn’t have the zip it once had, but he hasn’t decayed enough physically to justify such a steep tumble.

In fact, last year, he generated more shot attempts per hour and shots per hour than every other Blackhawk who skated in 500-plus minutes in all situations. Not all shots are created equal, of course, but it’s encouraging to know he’s still firing the puck at a high clip.

For what it’s worth, Corsica’s model expected him to notch 42 goals in the last two campaigns (146 games), seven more than he actually scored.

So part of the aforementioned dip could be chalked up to bad breaks. Considering the likelihood of regression, it wouldn’t be stunning if Hossa experienced a healthy uptick in production. He’s already off to a promising start: Hossa earned an assist in each of Chicago’s first two games, and registered six shots on net in the process.

Still, expectations should be tame.

Aging curves tell us not to expect a renaissance campaign from anyone nearing 40. And while Hossa eventually moved to his usual spot on Jonathan Toews’ line on Friday, he started the night alongside Marcus Kruger, who scored his first goal in 47 appearances. Hossa tallied the primary helper, naturally.

Hossa and Kruger might stick together for a while, even though Joel Quenneville makes use of his line blender more than most coaches. Quenneville liked the way those two performed during the 2016 playoffs, saying, “I thought [Hossa] did well playing with Krugs; a little bit more of a checking role and still feel he can score and provide defense as well.” 

That last point is key. Because even though it’s hard to predict what Hossa will do on offense, the Blackhawks can count on him to excel in all three zones. 

This well-rounded ability is clear on tape. He’s still quick. He still backchecks hard. He still outmuscles players in the corners and behind the cage. He still lifts opponents’ sticks with ease so he can swipe away the puck. And when comes to defending a one-on-one situation, there aren’t many forwards who are better at neutralizing a rush than him.

These skills are visible in the numbers, too, thanks to Domenic Galamini’s HERO Chart:

Hossa’s shot suppression metrics aren’t as impressive as they once were, but he’s still a defensive stalwart. And he still drives possession better than most.

“[A]s long as I can keep skating with the young guys, I think I can bring lots to the team, especially defensively or penalty-killing,” Hossa said. “Obviously, talking to Coach Q, he wants to use me more in that department.”

Considering all the different factors at hand — aging, health, supporting cast, role, puck luck, etc. — it wouldn’t be surprising if Hossa rebounds in 2016-17, nor would it be shocking if his numbers continue to weaken. But if he can avoid any big injuries and remain a two-way threat, odds are he’ll be a valuable member of a team with Cup aspirations.

And that’s more than most players in their late 30s could ever say.

The post What the Blackhawks can expect from Marian Hossa in 2016-17 appeared first on Todays SlapShot.